Wisconsin’s partisan primary is drawing fresh attention to races well beyond the governor’s contest, with Democrats and Republicans alike focusing on winnable matchups lower on the ballot and the potential for broader political momentum going into November. The contest includes a high-stakes fight over federal representation and a separate, crowded Republican primary for secretary of state, a role described as central to state recordkeeping and the maintenance of official documents.
For Democrats, one of the most urgent priorities is breaking through in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, where Republican U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden has held the seat since 2023. Party strategists see the district as a plausible pickup and have been keeping a close eye on the dynamics following Van Orden’s 2024 contest. That year, one of his most prominent challengers was repeat candidate Rebecca Cooke, a Democrat from Eau Claire whose background spans work as a waitress as well as prior experience as a small business owner, political consultant, and nonprofit leader. Cooke lost to Van Orden in 2024 by nearly 3 percentage points, setting the stage for Democrats to argue the district is more competitive than it may appear at first glance.
Cooke is again seeking to unseat Van Orden in the upcoming general election after filing to compete in the primary cycle. The Cook Political Report has rated Van Orden’s Republican opponent—State Rep. Bryan Steil—as a likely winner in that nomination track, but the district remains the subject of debate among political analysts who say it is in play. Although the seat has been held by a Republican since 1995, Democrats say the narrowness of Cooke’s previous loss signals that voter preferences can be contested in the right conditions. Steil, the Republican incumbent in the broader nomination context and a long-time member of the district’s representation, is running unopposed in the primary and has represented the district since 2019, meaning the principal suspense for Democrats is not who will win the nomination, but whether they can win the general election.
That push arrives as Democrats weigh the wider consequences of how the gubernatorial race shapes voting behavior downballot. One analysis of Wisconsin’s politics highlights that Democrats view an expanded electoral opportunity as they aim—at least in part—to win a governing trifecta that has not been achieved by the party since 2010. The same reporting emphasizes that Republicans have previously shown they can translate control of major institutions into political leverage, including the ability to redraw congressional lines that could affect seats beyond the top of the ticket. In that framing, a sustained Democratic surge would be more than symbolic; it would represent a shift in how Wisconsin’s governing power is distributed.
In the background of those national and statewide calculations is the broader reality that Wisconsin’s primaries are not all about governors and statewide executives. With congressional and state legislative contests on the ballot simultaneously, parties are responding to the idea that turnout and persuasion at the top can spill over into other races. State Sen. Kelda Roys, a Democrat and one of the gubernatorial candidates who has been polling in the single digits, has argued publicly that voters should question why Republicans are investing resources in certain primary efforts. She suggested Republicans believe they have a path not only for Tom Tiffany to win the governorship but for a Republican trifecta—meaning control of the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature—which would, in turn, influence future policy and potentially legislative mapping decisions.
One reason the secretary of state contest has become a focal point is that the position is largely responsible for official recordkeeping and document maintenance, making it an institutional anchor for the state’s administrative machinery. Four Republicans are seeking to succeed outgoing secretary of state Josh Godlewski, setting up an intra-party competition that tests the party’s ability to unite around a single nominee while also elevating different policy priorities and personal profiles.
The candidates include Brayden Myer of Manitowoc, a small business owner; Jay Schroeder of Neenah, described as a real estate and stock investor; Dodge County farmer Nate Pollnow; and Cindy Werner of Milwaukee, an Army veteran. Pollnow has been endorsed by the Republican Party of Wisconsin, a signal that party leadership may view his candidacy as particularly aligned with its internal direction. The outcome of this primary could matter for how voters perceive the Republican bench heading into November, especially if the GOP is trying to lock in statewide administrative control in addition to federal and legislative gains.
Beyond the federal and statewide-office battles, Wisconsin’s primary cycle also features multiple competitive legislative races that reflect local power struggles and party renewal efforts. Reporting ahead of the vote has highlighted contest mechanics in districts where incumbents are stepping down or where open seats and challenging primaries are drawing significant attention. The stakes can be heightened when a congressional race is expected to drive turnout, or when a gubernatorial contest is expected to reshape partisan enthusiasm.
In northern Wisconsin, for example, the 7th District has a heavily contested Republican primary as U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany leaves the seat to run for governor. Candidates include Wausau financial adviser Kevin Hermening, Chippewa County factory worker Jessi Ebben, Crescent business owner Niina Baum, Superior contractor Don Raihala, and Michael Alfonso, the son-in-law of former congressman and current U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. Alfonso is endorsed by Trump, adding a national political dimension to a state-level congressional contest. The presence of that kind of endorsement underscores how Wisconsin primaries can become proxies for broader ideological battles.
Across the ballot, Democrats and Republicans appear to be treating the primary as more than a sorting mechanism for candidates. It is also a referendum, in practical terms, on which coalitions are energizing voters and which narratives are gaining traction. As the 3rd Congressional District contest becomes a leading Democratic target and as Republicans fight to define their next secretary of state, both parties are setting up a November landscape where downballot results could be as consequential as the governor’s race itself. captimes.com The Hill The Bulwark Wisconsin Watch.
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