Accountant and academic Prem Sikka says the UK is effectively “sleepwalking” into a looming food crisis driven by a mix of extreme weather, high inflation, and wider geopolitical pressures linked to the war in Iran. His warning centers on how quickly shocks are stacking up across the food supply chain, leaving households and public services increasingly exposed.
Sikka argues that the crisis is not simply a short-term disruption but a structural problem with long-running consequences. In his account, the UK’s reliance on global markets is a key vulnerability. When climate-related events disrupt farming and harvesting elsewhere, the UK is forced to compete in a strained international environment for both food and the inputs needed to grow it. With demand remaining steady and supply tightening, price rises can follow quickly.
Extreme weather, he notes, has become a persistent driver of lower agricultural output. Unusual heat, drought, flooding, and other disruptions can reduce yields and raise costs. These effects feed into food prices through multiple channels: less production, more volatility in global commodity markets, and higher costs for storage, transport, and insurance. Over time, this instability translates into higher grocery bills and worsens affordability for people already living close to financial limits.
Inflation is portrayed as the mechanism that converts supply pressures into a deeper cost-of-living crisis. As prices for food increase, households with limited savings are forced to cut spending or shift to cheaper alternatives, potentially affecting diet quality. Sikka emphasizes that inflation does not merely add a one-off increase; it also raises the cost of energy and transport, which then raises the cost of moving and processing food.
He also highlights the impacts of the Iran war on international prices and logistics. While the UK may not be directly dependent on Iranian food supplies, regional conflict can affect global energy markets, shipping routes, and the pricing of critical industrial inputs. Those disruptions can raise costs for shipping and production and may also contribute to instability in commodity markets, including those related to fertilizers.
A major part of Sikka’s warning is the connection between food production and fertilizer availability. He points out that fertilizer is essential to crop yields, and that the UK’s agricultural system is heavily dependent on imports and global supply chains for fertilizers. If international fertilizer markets tighten—due to energy price spikes, production disruptions, or trade disruptions—farmers face higher input costs. Those costs can then be passed on through food prices, or production decisions can be altered, potentially leading to lower output.
Sikka stresses that the UK’s food system is also constrained by weaker domestic infrastructure. He argues that poor water and energy infrastructure makes it harder for the country to respond to shocks. Limited resilience in water systems can reduce the ability to irrigate crops during dry periods, while aging or underpowered energy infrastructure can make it harder to maintain efficient storage, processing, and food distribution when demand and costs rise. In combination, these weaknesses reduce the margin of safety during periods of extreme weather.
The overall consequence, Sikka says, is that the crisis is likely to push more people into poverty. Higher food bills and broader cost pressures can quickly undermine household budgets, especially for those on low incomes or those relying on fixed incomes. He also warns of wider social instability, arguing that worsening food affordability can increase the risk of unrest—particularly if the burden falls most heavily on communities already struggling.
Sikka’s policy prescription is to move away from what he describes as neoliberal approaches that leave the economy and public services overly dependent on market forces and global supply chains. He calls for abandoning this framework in favor of building self-reliance. In practice, that means treating food security as a strategic priority and investing in the resilience of domestic systems, including water and energy infrastructure, rather than assuming that international markets will always absorb shocks smoothly.
He argues that the UK must prepare for continuing volatility rather than reacting after prices spike. The central message is that the convergence of extreme weather, inflationary pressures, and the indirect effects of the Iran war is already reshaping the risk landscape for food. Without stronger domestic capacity and a shift in policy direction, Sikka believes the UK will face deeper food insecurity, increased poverty, and heightened social tension.
Source: The original remarks were shared by Prem Sikka on YouTube (as referenced in the provided material).
Prem Sikka: UK sleepwalking into food crisis caused by extreme weather, inflation, impacts of the Iran war. UK imports food, fertilizer Poor water/energy infrastructure Crisis will push more into poverty, risk of unrest. Abandon neoliberalism, build self-reliance.. #breaking
— @premnsikka May 1, 2026
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