Political commentator Glenn Diesen has highlighted the stark observation made by international relations scholar John Mearsheimer regarding the predictable nature of war when a major power positions itself along the border of another. Diesen emphasizes that this fundamental principle, once considered straightforward geopolitical common sense, has paradoxically become a subject of considerable debate and controversy in contemporary discourse. The core of Mearsheimer’s assertion, as relayed by Diesen, is that the physical proximity of a rising or established great power to a rival’s territory inherently creates conditions conducive to conflict. This isn’t a matter of malice or ideological grievance alone, but rather a structural reality driven by security dilemmas and the innate drive for power projection and self-preservation inherent in statecraft.
Mearsheimer’s theory, often associated with the school of offensive realism in international relations, posits that great powers are inherently insecure and constantly seek to maximize their relative power. When such a power expands its influence or military presence to a nation’s doorstep, it is perceived as an existential threat by the bordering state. This perception, in turn, triggers a defensive response, which might involve military buildup, alliances, or even preemptive action. The cycle of action and reaction escalates, making war an increasingly probable outcome. Diesen’s commentary suggests that this pragmatic understanding of power dynamics is being overshadowed by alternative narratives that downplay or dismiss the significance of geographical and power-based imperatives in international conflict.
The controversy Diesen refers to likely stems from the current geopolitical climate, where interpretations of events such as the war in Ukraine are fiercely contested. Some analyses might prioritize ideological clashes, historical grievances, or specific leadership decisions as primary drivers of conflict, potentially sidelining the structural factors that Mearsheimer and Diesen champion. The idea that proximity and power imbalances are significant predictors of war challenges narratives that frame conflicts solely as the result of aggressive ideologies or rogue actors, suggesting instead a more systemic and less idiosyncratic cause.
By bringing Mearsheimer’s perspective to the forefront, Diesen is implicitly criticizing what he perceives as a dangerous departure from a realistic understanding of international affairs. He implies that by neglecting these fundamental geopolitical principles, policymakers and analysts risk misdiagnosing the causes of conflict and, consequently, implementing ineffective or even counterproductive strategies. The “controversial” nature of this “common sense” suggests a societal or intellectual resistance to accepting the unvarnished realities of power politics, perhaps due to a preference for more palatable, morally charged explanations.
Diesen’s focus on this particular Mearsheimer quote underscores a broader concern about the erosion of traditional geopolitical thinking. He implies that a nuanced understanding of how great powers interact, particularly concerning border dynamics, is essential for maintaining peace and stability. The ability to foresee potential conflicts based on power configurations rather than solely reacting to them once they erupt is a hallmark of effective foreign policy. When such foresight becomes controversial, it signals a potentially perilous intellectual environment where strategic thinking is compromised.
The implication of Diesen’s statement is that understanding the security dilemma inherent in bordering great powers is not a warmongering stance, but a necessary prerequisite for avoiding war. By recognizing the predictable consequences of power projection onto another’s borders, states can, in theory, take steps to de-escalate tensions, establish clear red lines, or engage in diplomatic efforts that acknowledge and manage these inherent risks. The failure to do so, according to Mearsheimer’s framework and Diesen’s emphasis, leaves the door wide open for inevitable confrontation. The debate Diesen observes suggests a difficulty in applying these foundational concepts in the complex and often ideologically charged landscape of modern international relations, where the very language of power and national interest can be seen as inflammatory rather than analytical. Source: Glenn Diesen
Glenn Diesen: Mearsheimer: War is the predictable consequence when one great power establishes itself on the border of another great power. What was previously common sense has now become controversial…. #breaking
— @Glenn_Diesen May 1, 2026
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