“Rise in Mass Shootings and Killings Highlights Gun Violence as an American Problem, Not Just Urban”
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It also vastly understates the surge in shooting incidents that followed the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020.
You are probably aware that our shared vernacular has not yet figured out how to accommodate incidents in which multiple people are shot or killed. That database — and by extension The Washington Post — uses the measure of four or more people killed to establish a “mass killing” incident. The magazine Mother Jones, which had an early iteration of a similar database, describes this as a “mass shooting.” The Gun Violence Archive, by contrast, uses “mass shooting” to describe incidents in which four or more people are shot, whether or not they are killed.
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If we use the Gun Violence Archive’s numbers, compiled from news reports, we see that the number of incidents so far this year is far above 38. Its tally of incidents in which at least four people were injured by gunfire (again excluding the shooter) puts the number at 630 so far in 2023, the second-highest since it began tracking data in 2014. At this point in 2021, there were 652 such incidents. The number of people killed in those incidents, though, is at a record high to this point in the year, with 659 deaths in those mass shooting incidents.
The divide between pre- and post-pandemic incidents is very obvious on that graph. Beginning in about the middle of 2020, the number of mass shooting incidents tracked by the Gun Violence Archive surged. It has remained high ever since.
Between 2016 and 2019, there were 1,466 mass shooting incidents tracked by the archive, resulting in 1,612 deaths. Between 2020 and 2023, the number of incidents totaled 2,557, with 2,447 people killed.
The shifts in mass killings, using the AP-USA Today-Northeastern database, are more modest. From 2016 to 2019, there were 138 such incidents (including ones not involving firearms), with the number from 2020 to 2023 climbing to 142. The number of people killed fell, from 805 to 703.
But there is an interesting pattern to those changes: They have differed depending on the type of county in which they took place.
Below, you can see the number of mass killing incidents by type of county before and after the pandemic began. The larger the circle, the more incidents per 100,000 residents. There are a lot more visible gray circles — rural counties, averaging about 23,000 residents — than you might expect.
Of course, counting a small number of incidents relative to population is going to result in a disproportionate representation of less-populous counties. But the pattern also holds for the number of deaths in those incidents: Rural counties stand out, particularly compared with large urban areas (which average about 1.5 million residents).
In fact, the population-adjusted number of mass killings in rural areas and the number of deaths from those killings increased the most across rural counties in the post-pandemic period. In urban and large suburban (average population: 230,000) counties, the number of mass killing deaths relative to population declined sharply.
Again, though, that’s only mass killings, of which there are fewer. When we consider mass shootings, using the Gun Violence Archive numbers, we see that the number of incidents and deaths climbed regardless of the type of county. But the rate of growth in the post-pandemic era relative to the four years before 2020 was faster in rural counties than large urban ones.
What really stands out in mapping the Gun Violence Archive numbers is the number of mass shootings in smaller metropolitan counties (average population of about 137,000). The number of incidents relative to the population in those counties nearly doubled from 2020 to 2023 relative to the 2016 to 2019 period.
This is imprecise, certainly. There are less- populated areas in heavily urban counties and more-populated places in rural ones. Attributing a shooting incident to Los Angeles County at large, for example, doesn’t tell us much about the place where it happened. The AP-USA Today-Northeastern database also notes that most mass killings that it tracks occur in private homes, something that is independent of the population density of the surrounding community.
What this analysis suggests, though, is that the increase in mass shooting and mass killing incidents that occurred after the emergence of the pandemic was not solely a function of big-city violence. More people died in mass killing incidents in rural areas relative to population than in large cities. The increase in the number of mass shootings was sharper in smaller metropolitan areas than big ones.
Gun violence is broadly an American problem, not exclusively an urban one.
The number of mass shooting incidents in the United States has reached its highest annual total since 2006, according to a database maintained by the Associated Press, USA Today, and Northeastern University. However, this figure vastly underestimates the surge in shootings that followed the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020.
The database defines a “mass killing” incident as one in which four or more people are killed by gunfire, excluding the shooter. However, the Gun Violence Archive uses a broader definition, including incidents in which four or more people are shot, whether or not they are killed. Using this definition, the number of incidents so far this year is far above 38, with 630 incidents resulting in at least four people injured by gunfire.
The data shows a clear divide between pre- and post-pandemic incidents. Since the middle of 2020, the number of mass shooting incidents has surged and remained high. Between 2016 and 2019, there were 1,466 incidents resulting in 1,612 deaths. In contrast, between 2020 and 2023, there have been 2,557 incidents resulting in 2,447 deaths.
Interestingly, the changes in mass killings differ depending on the type of county in which they occur. The data shows that rural counties, with an average population of about 23,000 residents, have a higher number of mass killing incidents and deaths relative to their population. In contrast, large urban areas, with an average population of 1.5 million, have seen a decline in mass killing deaths relative to their population.
When considering mass shootings, the data shows that the number of incidents and deaths has increased regardless of the type of county. However, the rate of growth in the post-pandemic era has been faster in rural counties compared to large urban ones. Smaller metropolitan counties have also experienced a significant increase in mass shooting incidents relative to their population.
This analysis suggests that the increase in mass shooting and killing incidents after the emergence of the pandemic was not solely a result of big-city violence. More people died in mass killing incidents in rural areas relative to their population, and the increase in mass shootings was sharper in smaller metropolitan areas compared to larger ones.
The data highlights that gun violence is a widespread issue in the United States, affecting both urban and rural areas. Efforts to address this problem need to consider the unique dynamics and factors contributing to gun violence in different types of communities.
In conclusion, the number of mass shooting incidents in the United States has reached a record high, with the surge in shootings following the emergence of the pandemic. The data shows that rural areas and smaller metropolitan counties have experienced a disproportionate increase in incidents and deaths, emphasizing that gun violence is not exclusively an urban problem..
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Philip Bump said How the surge in post-pandemic shootings has unfolded in the U.S.
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